Turnover and Labour Supply in the Early Care and Education Sector

If we raise wages in the licensed child care sector in Canada, will it make much difference?  How much difference would it make? 

There’s not much research around that can help us answer these questions.  And yet, they are really important to policy makers, to advocates and to parents who are trying to find scarce child care spots.

Now, some really capable economists in the U.S. have published a paper (Cunha and Lee, 2023) in the National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper series that can help us.  There’s a lot in this paper, but our focus is more narrow.  Let me summarize some key results of interest. 

Turnover is defined as moving out of the child care industry (NAICS code 624410) over the course of one year, between the third quarter of one year and the second quarter of the next. 

The authors are concerned with turnover in the sector, because they believe that turnover is likely to negatively affect children’s development.  Overall, turnover rates are 39% in the ECE sector in Texas where their data is from and that’s quite a bit higher than in other sectors.  And turnover is higher for workers with a college education, which means that workers with more education are more likely to leave. 

The authors estimate that the elasticity of turnover is -0.5, which is to say that a 20% rise in staff compensation will reduce turnover by about 10%. 

The authors go on to estimate the elasticity of labour supply in the ECE sector and find it is equal to 2.0.  To put it another way, an earnings increase of 25% in labour income in the ECE sector would be likely to lead to a 50% increase in employment in the sector. We can say, therefore that labour supply in this sector is highly elastic – highly sensitive to changes in compensation.  If we are able to raise child care staff wages in Canada, we should expect it to have a strong impact on recruitment and retention.

There are previous estimates of labour supply elasticities in the ECE sector in the U.S. by David Blau (1993, 2001), but they are from quite a few years ago.  He, too, found that labour supply in ECE is quite sensitive to compensation levels.  His overall estimates of labour supply elasticity were 1.94 and 1.15.  He was able to estimate what are called the extensive, intensive and total elasticities.  The extensive elasticity refers to the decision to be employed as an ECE or not.  The intensive elasticity refers to the decision to work a larger number of hours.  The total is the sum of the two.  In 1993, his estimates were 1.2 for the extensive elasticity,  0.74 for the intensive elasticity, and 1.94 for the total.  In 2001, using different data, his estimates were 0.73 for the extensive, 0.42 for the intensive and 1.15 for the total.

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REFERENCES

Blau, David M. (1993) The Supply of Child Care Labor.  Journal of Labor Economics 11(2): 324-347. 

Blau, David M. (2001) The Child Care Problem: An Economic Analysis.  New York: Russell Sage Foundation.


Cunha, Flavio. and Lee, Marcus. (2023) One Says Goodbye, Another Says Hello: Turnover and Compensation in the Early Care and Education Sector.  Working Paper 31869, National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA.

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST TO RAISE THE WAGES OF EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATORS?

It is now widely acknowledged that the pay of early childhood educators is too low.  Comparisons of ECE hourly wages to those in other competing occupations show that educators are paid as if they had a high school education rather than a college certificate or diploma.  We can see the effects of this in the extreme shortages of fully-qualified ECEs for existing and new child care facilities.  In most Canadian provinces and territories, growth in spaces is held back as much by the lack of staff as it is by the lack of organizational and financial support for planned and funded expansion.  

The big questions for governments are (1) how much will it cost to raise wages? (2) how should they do it? and (3) who will pay? 

Up till now, it’s been hard to answer the “cost” question because we haven’t had good data on how many program staff work in licensed services and what their average wages are now. 

I’ve spent a large amount of time pulling together and analyzing the best publicly available data on this, province by province (sorry, I haven’t done the Territories yet).  The details of this (staff numbers and typical wages by qualification level for each province) will appear in another blog on this site once I have finished crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s (lots of numbers and boring reading for most people).  But, using those numbers, I can now make estimates of how much raising ECE wages will cost.  If you have better numbers, I’m happy for you to send them to me so I can make revisions.

The table below shows my estimates of how much it would cost to raise the wages of fully-qualified ECEs across the country by 25% from whatever their current level is.  For the average ECE, that would mean a raise of $5 to $7 an hour from current levels.  I’m not trying to say that’s enough, or that this is the right way to raise ECE wages.  If I look at the data on wage comparisons to other occupations, it very likely isn’t enough.  But, it may begin to move the needle on the supply of early childhood educators.  It may encourage more new ECE graduates and existing ECEs to stay in the sector. 

Have a look at the last column province by province. Each cell shows the overall cost of raising qualified ECE hourly wages by 25% compared to what they are now (including the effects of wage grids, wage grants and wage supplements).

This is simply a simulation to give us all an idea of how much it will cost to have a significant rise in ECE wages.  It is not a carefully thought out design for wage increases. What is needed will vary from one province to another; some provinces have done a lot already, others have done little.  In provinces with generally high wage levels for all types of workers, a 25% rise in ECE wages may not do very much. In provinces that have already done a lot to raise wage levels and establish wage grids, a 25% wage rise might be very significant.

To see all of the columns, view the table below in a new window

ESTIMATED STAFF NUMBERS (0-12), CURRENT WAGE BILL, AND COSTS OF WAGE INCREASES FOR FULLY-QUALIFIED ECEs

ProvinceNumber fully-qualified incl directors/ supervisorsNumber of less qualifiedTotal program staffTotal FTE program staffCurrent annual wage bill ($ mil)Cost of 25% increase for fully-qualified ($ mil)
BC16,8006,80023,60020,600$1,005.4+$208.0
AB13,00010,75023,75021,000$965.8+$155.9
SK1,6501,3002,9502,600$90.7+$15.5
MB3,4003,0006,4005,700$215.3+$34.9
ON35,00020,00055,00051,000$2,183.0+$391.7
QC (0-4)29,00010,30039,30035,000$1,576.0+$315.9
NB2,7002,0004,7004,300$186.0+$29.9
NS2,6008003,4003,200$142.4+$29.9
PE7004001,100950$42.3+$7.3
NL8254001,2251,100$48.2+$8.9
CANADA105,67555,750161,425145,450$6,455.1+$1,198.0
CA – QC76,67545,450122,125110,450$4,879.5+$882.1
To see all of the columns, view the table above in a new window
  • Fully-qualified refers to ECEs with a 1-year college ECE certificate or a 2-year college ECE diploma, or more.
  • These calculations are produced by Gordon Cleveland, based on the estimated wages and staff numbers in Estimates of Staff Numbers and Wages in ELCC Centres, by Province, August 16, 2023.  Numbers for the Territories are not yet included.
  • It is assumed that wages would have to rise equally for ECEs caring for children 6-12 years of age.  However, in Quebec where fully-qualified staff caring for children 5-12 years are employed by the school system, numbers refer only to staff caring for children 0-4.

These numbers do not include the extra cost of compulsory benefits like contributions to pay for EI and CPP/QPP and vacation pay.  That would add another 15%-18%, perhaps.  However, these estimates do include an allowance for supply staff.

There is no magic in this 25% wage rise simulation.  But, now, with data on current numbers of staff and on current wage levels, we can do whatever simulations we think are appropriate and estimate the costs of taking action (and compare them to the costs of inaction).  That, I think, is a big step forward.

With these simulations in hand, we can turn to the next two questions.  Question #2 was how exactly we should raise wages.  That debate is too big for this blogpost, but let me make some observations. I believe that the big staff supply problem is centred in the inadequate supply of fully-qualified early childhood educators, whether that is a one-year ECE college certificate or a two-year ECE college diploma.  Recruiting untrained staff or recruiting staff that need to take only an orientation course or two is not where the problem lies.  That means we need to concentrate our scarce funds on raising the wages of qualified educators.

And once we have decided to concentrate our wage-raising efforts on fully-qualified staff, we need to avoid the Ontario mistake.  Ontario decided to raise wages by concentrating their efforts on low-paid educators.  In 2022, they boosted all early childhood educators earning less than $18 an hour up to $18, but they did nothing for anyone else.  In 2023 and beyond, they are raising the pay of other educators by $1 per hour each year, but only if the educators currently earn less than $25 an hour; $25 is the top wage for this program.  This focus only on low-paid educators ensures that ECE will continue to be a low-paid profession; even $25 an hour will keep educators well below competing occupations.

And, the Ontario wage supplement design ensures that most of the wage assistance will go to centres that previously were underpaying their workers, disproportionately those in the for-profit sector.  The Doug Ford government is developing a bit of a reputation for favouring for-profit friends, whether it be the Greenbelt or child care, but this kind of wage supplement design will not do a good job of retaining the best-qualified and most experienced staff and making ECE an attractive profession.

Finally, there is the question of who will pay.  I would be overjoyed if the federal government decided to come up with a billion dollars of extra annual funding, but I don’t think that will happen very soon, and wage rises do need to happen very soon.  Some provinces may be willing to up their spending to solve wage problems, and that is welcome.  But the most obvious immediate place to get funding for educator wages is to change priorities for the expenditure of federal dollars under the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreements.  The very large majority of the federal funds under current Action Plans goes to lowering parent fees.  Right now, many provinces are renegotiating Action Plans to cover the next three years.  Why not allocate a larger portion of money in the next three years to cover wage increases for fully-qualified early childhood educators?  And there should be provincial contributions to cover the wage increases for staff caring for 6-12 year-olds. 

The numbers in the table above tell us about how much reallocation of dollars is needed in each province.  Let’s get it done, or expansion will not happen and access to affordable child care will continue to be a dream for most families.

Wages of Early Childhood Educators and Assistants in Ontario

This table below supports the chart in my presentation to the recent (Jan 5, 2023) Building Blocks for Child Care webinar on child care expansion in Ontario. It is posted nearby on this website. The table and chart show the essential problem behind recruitment and retention problems of early childhood educators. Their wages are too low to attract many more educators. In essence, the average wage paid to early childhood educators is much lower than the hourly wages paid to workers in other occupations requiring a college education. Early childhood educators are paid as if they had only a high school education, so there is very little incentive to enter the profession. The data is from Statistics Canada, most of it from the Labour Force Survey across 2020 and 2021.

You can also compare this to data we have on Registered Early Childhood Educators in Ontario from 2019. Have a look at Figure 11 and the table below it from Ontario’s 2020 Annual Report. It shows that the median wage of RECEs in Ontario in 2019 was just a hair above $20 an hour. By the way, Ontario hasn’t yet published its 2021 Annual Report on how child care is doing in Ontario, even though they collected that data on March 31st, 2021. I wonder why.

Are the Wages of Early Childhood Educators Competitive With Other Occupations?

Young women and men make career decisions early in life based upon their capabilities, their interests and the amount of money they might expect to earn.  If there are shortages of early childhood educators, wage levels need to be increased to recruit more educators and retain the ones you have.

Why do we have a huge problem recruiting and retaining staff in licensed child care across Canada?  Fundamentally, it is because the wages of early childhood educators and assistants are not competitive with other occupations that require a college education.  Simple as that, really.

This first table shows the latest data from Job Bank about the hourly wage levels in a range of occupations that require a college education, specialized training or apprenticeship training.  Early childhood educators and assistants appears at the top. Then, health occupations requiring a college education are grouped together, followed by occupations in education and law and in social, community and government services. The final group of occupations are in business, finance and administration. Early childhood educators and assistants across Canada earn an average wage of $20.88 an hour, which is lower than all the others.  Read and weep.

NOC CodeOccupation TitleAverage Hourly Wage
4214Early Childhood Educators and Assistants$20.88
3222Dental Hygienist and Dental Therapists$39.45
3223Dental Technicians and Lab Assistants$25.09
3232Practitioners of Natural Healing$34.41
3233Licensed Practical Nurses$28.28
3234Paramedical Occupations$34.68
3236Massage Therapists$34.36
4211Paralegal and Related Occupations$31.31
4212Social and Community Service Workers$25.18
4214Early Childhood Educators and Assistants$20.88
4215Instructors of Persons with Disabilities$28.51
4216Other Instructors$23.09
1221Administrative Officers$29.00
1222Executive Assistants$31.38
1241Administrative Assistants$24.87
1242Legal Administrative Assistants$26.22
1243Medical Administrative Assistants$22.78
1253Records Management Technicians$29.21

Where does the average wage of early childhood educators and assistants apparently fit on the ladder of occupations?  It is similar to the wages paid for occupations requiring only a high school education or on-the-job training.  Even here, many of the other occupations are paid better than child care.

See the table below that lists occupations requiring only a high-school education, except for the first occupation in which early childhood educators require a college education.

NOC CodeOccupation TitleAverage Hourly Wage
4214Early Childhood Educators and Assistants$20.88
3411Dental Assistants$25.37
3413Nurses’ Aides, Orderlies and Service Associates$21.54
3414Other Assisting Occupations in Health Services$21.83
4411Home Child Care Providers$18.03
4412Home Support Workers, Housekeepers and Related$19.02
4413Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants$23.51
1411General Office Support Workers$23.30
1414Receptionists$19.79
1415Personnel Clerks$25.79
1422Data Entry Clerks$22.54
1511Mail, Postal and Related Workers$22.49
1513Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors$19.38
1521Shippers and Receivers$20.66

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The message is clear.  If we want to expand early childhood education as a profession and have enough educators to offer good quality care at $10 a day, there is no real alternative to raising the wages.  Simple as that.

How much do Early Childhood Educators earn?

How much do Early Childhood Educators earn?  Everyone knows that their wages are low – too low – but it’s hard to find a reliable source of data to make wage comparisons. 

One very interesting data source is a Government of Canada web site called Job Bank (www.jobbank.gc.ca).  It’s a web site designed to help people find jobs and plan their careers by providing information.  And it has a lot of data on many different occupations in many different geographic locations in Canada.

The data on Early Childhood Educators comes from the Labour Force Survey, a monthly survey conducted by Statistics Canada that produces well-known updates of unemployment rates in Canada, but also collects detailed information about wages and occupations.  Each month there are about 54,000 households that respond to the survey about members of their household.

Early Childhood Educators are part of an occupation called Early Childhood Educators and Assistants.  You might know it as occupation 4214 in the National Occupational Code.  However, there is a new revision of this coding system and in future Early Childhood Educators and Assistants will be known as NOC 42202. 

The chart below shows the latest data available for the wages of Early Childhood Educators and Assistants from the Job Bank web site.  We get information on the average hourly wage rate (grey line), the “low wage” level (blue line; this is the 10th percentile of the wage distribution), and the “high wage” (orange line; this is the 90th percentile of the wage distribution).  The exact number for the average wage is shown as a set of data labels on the chart.

The data seems very precise and useful.  It tells us that the average wage across Canada is $20.88 per hour.  However, hourly wages range from about $15 an hour to about $26.50 per hour when we look at the range from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile.  We can also see that some jurisdictions have  lower wages (the Atlantic Provinces, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta)  compared to other jurisdictions.  We could download similar data from other years and see how wages have changed over time. 

However, the precision of this data is somewhat illusory.  We are, perhaps, interested in finding out the hourly wages of program staff with certificate, diploma or university qualifications (early childhood educators) separately from the hourly wages of early childhood educator assistants who don’t have this level of qualifications.  This data source does not allow us to do this; both educators and educator assistants are grouped together in the same occupation.  Similarly, we can’t get data separately on supervisors and directors as opposed to ECEs that are exclusively employed in direct contact with children.

There’s another problem as well.  We might well be interested only in program staff working in licensed child care centres.   However, this occupation (NOC 42202) includes early childhood educators that work in kindergartens and other early childhood services as well as those in licensed centres.[1]  Elementary School Teachers’ Aides are in a different occupation, as are family home care providers, but still NOC 42202 does not give us a wage for licensed child care centre employees only.

A major alternative source of data is available for Ontario.  This comes from a census survey of all licensed child care providers in the province that is conducted annually by the Ministry of Education.  The last data that has been released on wages is from 2019 (!) https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-early-years-and-child-care-annual-report-2020.

It is likely that the Ministry of Education has data from 2022, but this has not yet been published.  Here is the data from the 2019 Ontario survey. 


This Ontario wage data is collected from centres, so reflects only the wages that are paid to staff in licensed child care centres.  Centre directors are asked to report how many staff with different qualification levels have hourly wages in a number of different ranges.  Wages for early childhood educators with an RECE are reported separately from wages for staff in an RECE position but who needed a director’s approval because of lack of full qualification.  Wages for other program staff (without formal qualifications) are also reported.  Because the data is collected in ranges, it is not possible to calculate either the average wage or the median wage for RECEs and other program staff. 

The median wage is, however, the wage of the staff member in the 50th percentile position.  With 47% of RECEs having hourly wages of $20 or less and 53% of RECEs having hourly wages of over $20, it would appear that the median wage of RECEs in child care centres in Ontario in 2019 was very close to $20. By the same logic, we can say that the median wage for staff with a director’s approval and for other program staff was between $15.01 and $20.

If I use the Job Bank web site to get data on Early Childhood Educators and Assistants for Ontario in 2019, I find that the median wage in 2018-2019[2] was $19.75 and for 2019-2020 was $20. Interestingly, this median is very close to the estimate for RECEs in Ontario that comes from the Ontario annual census survey.

In my next blog post, I will look at wage comparisons based on the Job Bank data.

[1] For example, the Annual Report of Ontario’s College of Early Childhood Educators for 2020-21 tells us that only 56% of Registered Early Childhood Educators (RECEs) in the province are actually employed in licensed child care.  Another 32% are employed in the education sector and 12% elsewhere.


[2] Job Bank uses two years of Labour Force Survey data to get its wage estimates for NOC 42202, averaging the wage reports over the surveys from that two-year period.

Child Care Wages and Workforce Strategies – Looking at Australia: What Do They Have That We Need?

Canada has a crisis on its hands – a child care workforce crisis.  Already, child care operators across the country are unable to find staff; rooms are closing and centres are closing because of the inability to attract and retain early childhood educators.  That’s BEFORE the estimated need for 60,000 new early childhood educators as we move to $10 a day child care. 

Australia is not the first country that springs to mind when looking for child care policies to emulate.  For instance, Australia funds child care with vouchers that encourage the growth of the for-profit sector and lead to ever more expensive child care services.  This kind of funding has made the buying and selling of child care real estate into big business.   

However, Australia does have a wage grid and a strategy for workforce development, which jurisdictions in Canada do not have.  We can learn from their example. 

Australia has something called a Fair Work Commission whose job it is to design the wage grid and set the minimum wages and minimum conditions of employment in different sectors.  Children’s Services is one of those sectors, and the award made by the Fair Work Commission is a legal document that child care employers have to follow.  Employees can bargain for more than the minimum, but employers cannot pay less than the minimum award rate. 

Here’s a link to the Fair Work Commission award for Children’s Services workers updated in November 2022.  There’s a detailed classification structure of qualifications and responsibilities that forms the basis of the wage grid.  The wage grid lays out the minimum hourly and weekly rates that can be paid for different classification levels in children’s services occupations.  The two most frequent qualification levels are for staff with a Certificate III in Children’s Services (typically a 6-month course) and a Diploma in Children’s Services (typically an 18-month course).  The current award sets the starting hourly rate for less qualified staff (Certificate III) at $24.76 per hour and for qualified educators with a Diploma at $29.17 per hour.  Wages rise above these starting rates with increased experience.  Minimum hourly rates for a Director of a child care centre (called long day care) range from about $35 to $40 depending on the size of the centre and experience.

The Children’s Services Award covers many but not all ECEC employees – most others are covered by the Educational Services (Teachers) Award. That award sets out the wage grid for Early Childhood Teachers (ECTs) who have a Bachelor degree qualification (typically a 4-year course) or higher. All ECEC services in Australia must engage or have access to an ECT for a particular amount of time per week, determined by the number of children in attendance. Entry-level pay for an ECT is $32.20 per hour and increases with experience.

Since late 2019, Education Ministers across Australia have led a process involving extensive consultation to develop a ten-year strategy to build up and support the children’s education and care workforce.  It lists 21 actions – short, medium and long term – to be implemented over the ten-year period.  There is an implementation and evaluation plan to shape and ensure progress of this workforce strategy.

On top of all that, Australia is collecting detailed data about its workforce from all service providers (response rate of 99%).  There is a National Workforce Census, which is a population survey of early childhood education and care service providers across Australia.  It collects data on service usage, children with additional needs, access to programs and staffing.  On the workforce specifically, the census collects information about hours of work, qualifications, exemptions from qualification requirements, experience and tenure, professional development, gender, age, and Indigenous status of staff members.  The survey also collects data about whether these staff members earn the award-level wage (as determined by the Fair Work Commission) or a higher wage, and if higher by how much.  So, for instance, in the 2021 Workforce Census report we find that 57% of contact staff in child care centres earned the award rate, 34% earned above the award rate and for 9% of staff the wage rate was unknown.

None of this is perfect, of course.  Early childhood educators in Australia still receive low wages relative to many other workers and there is a movement for an immediate wage rise to keep educators in the sector.  However, many of the elements necessary to know about and improve wages and working conditions are in place in Australia.  I wish I could say the same about Canada.