If we raise wages in the licensed child care sector in Canada, will it make much difference? How much difference would it make?
There’s not much research around that can help us answer these questions. And yet, they are really important to policy makers, to advocates and to parents who are trying to find scarce child care spots.
Now, some really capable economists in the U.S. have published a paper (Cunha and Lee, 2023) in the National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper series that can help us. There’s a lot in this paper, but our focus is more narrow. Let me summarize some key results of interest.
Turnover is defined as moving out of the child care industry (NAICS code 624410) over the course of one year, between the third quarter of one year and the second quarter of the next.
The authors are concerned with turnover in the sector, because they believe that turnover is likely to negatively affect children’s development. Overall, turnover rates are 39% in the ECE sector in Texas where their data is from and that’s quite a bit higher than in other sectors. And turnover is higher for workers with a college education, which means that workers with more education are more likely to leave.
The authors estimate that the elasticity of turnover is -0.5, which is to say that a 20% rise in staff compensation will reduce turnover by about 10%.
The authors go on to estimate the elasticity of labour supply in the ECE sector and find it is equal to 2.0. To put it another way, an earnings increase of 25% in labour income in the ECE sector would be likely to lead to a 50% increase in employment in the sector. We can say, therefore that labour supply in this sector is highly elastic – highly sensitive to changes in compensation. If we are able to raise child care staff wages in Canada, we should expect it to have a strong impact on recruitment and retention.
There are previous estimates of labour supply elasticities in the ECE sector in the U.S. by David Blau (1993, 2001), but they are from quite a few years ago. He, too, found that labour supply in ECE is quite sensitive to compensation levels. His overall estimates of labour supply elasticity were 1.94 and 1.15. He was able to estimate what are called the extensive, intensive and total elasticities. The extensive elasticity refers to the decision to be employed as an ECE or not. The intensive elasticity refers to the decision to work a larger number of hours. The total is the sum of the two. In 1993, his estimates were 1.2 for the extensive elasticity, 0.74 for the intensive elasticity, and 1.94 for the total. In 2001, using different data, his estimates were 0.73 for the extensive, 0.42 for the intensive and 1.15 for the total.
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REFERENCES
Blau, David M. (1993) The Supply of Child Care Labor. Journal of Labor Economics 11(2): 324-347.
Blau, David M. (2001) The Child Care Problem: An Economic Analysis. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Cunha, Flavio. and Lee, Marcus. (2023) One Says Goodbye, Another Says Hello: Turnover and Compensation in the Early Care and Education Sector. Working Paper 31869, National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA.
What would Canada’s child care system look like if we let it be dominated by for-profit child care providers? Particularly with Pierre Poilievre lurking in the wings, it’s an interesting question to ask.
So, into my inbox arrives a fascinating study from what they call the “A triple-C” (ACCC) or Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. When the new Labor Prime Minister of Australia – Anthony Albanese – arrived in office in 2022, he commissioned two big studies of child care. He asked the ACCC to examine how well or badly the market for child care was working. And he asked the Productivity Commission – a permanent body rather like the old Economic Council of Canada – to report on how best to make child care universally accessible and affordable in Australia.
Both of these bodies have now produced Interim Reports. This blog post will comment on the one from the ACCC. The ACCC report focuses on the cost of producing child care services, the nature of competition in child care markets and the effectiveness of Australian government attempts to regulate child care fees.
You don’t want to read the whole report, so let me cherry-pick some findings for you.
The cost of child care in Australia is pretty high. Centre-based child care fees per hour (averaged across ages 0-5) were $11.72 in 2022 or $117.20 for a 10-hour day.
Australia’s Child Care Subsidy system (like a tax credit for child care expenses) costs the government a lot but does not make child care affordable. For a couple on average wages with 2 children (aged 2 and 3) in centre based day care full-time, net child care costs came to 16% of net household income in 2022. In contrast, the average for OECD countries was 9%, with Australia ranked 26th out of 32 countries. This is despite the Australian Government contribution to fees being significantly higher than most other OECD countries – 16% in Australia compared to the OECD average of 7%.
From 2018 to 2022, gross fees in Australia increased by 20.6% in comparison to the OECD average of 9.5%.
Looking at detailed data on the cost of producing centre-based child care for children younger than school age, 69% was accounted for by labour costs, 15% by land/occupancy, and 9% by finance and administration costs. But these proportions are quite a bit different for for-profit and not-for-profit providers. 69% of centre-based child care services in Australia are provided by for-profit operators.
Land and occupancy costs are about 18% of the total of all costs for large for-profit providers compared to about 10% for large not-for-profit providers. This is not due to what the Aussies call “peppercorn rents” (i.e., below-market rents provided on a goodwill basis). As the ACCC report says, this may be due to non-arms-length transactions in land rental of for-profit providers (to be investigated in the final report).
Not-for-profit child care operators pay a higher proportion in labour costs for two reasons. They are much more likely to pay “above-award” wages – in other words, wages that are above the minimums set by the Fair Work Commission wage grid. About 95% of the staff in not-for-profit centres are paid “above-award” compared to 64% in for-profit centres. The second reason is that not-for-profit providers are much more likely to hire their staff on a full-time basis, whereas for-profit providers primarily rely on part-time staff. As the report suggests: “large not-for-profit centre-based day care providers invest savings from lower land costs into labour costs, to improve the quality of their services and their ability to compete in their relevant markets.” The ACCC finds that centre-based day care services with a higher proportion of staff paid above award and with lower staff turnover have a higher quality rating under the National Quality Standard.
The ACCC finds that parents and guardians typically prefer centr- based day care services located close to their home. Most households travel a short distance to child care – between 2 and 3 kilometres.
Parents’ and guardians’ perception of quality is a key factor driving decisions for selecting a child care service. As child care is an ‘experience good’, meaning it is difficult to accurately determine quality of a child care service without having used it, parents and guardians appear to rely on informal measures of quality over formal National Quality Standard ratings.
Providers’ decisions to establish child care centres are highly influenced by expectations of profitability within a particular area or market, which are driven by expectations of demand and willingness to pay. The willingness to pay for child care within a local area is heavily influenced by household incomes, as this influences the opportunity costs of not using child care services. These factors encourage supply to markets where demand for child care is highest, and parents and guardians are likely willing to pay higher prices. In particular, for-profit providers are more likely to supply these markets as the opportunity for profit is greater.
These markets tend to be in metropolitan areas of higher socio-economic advantage. This higher demand and greater willingness to pay explains why we find operating margins are higher in areas of higher socio-economic advantage and Major Cities of Australia. The child care sector is widely viewed as a safe and strong investment with guaranteed returns, backed by a government safety net
While providers’ supply decisions are generally driven by considerations of viability, we note that there are providers that supply some services at a loss. This reflects that – like many other human services – child care plays an important societal role. This results in not-for- profit providers accounting for a greater proportion of services in areas of very low advantage.
The nature of child care markets and the role played by price, as well as the impact of the Child Care Subsidy, also mean it is unlikely that market forces alone will act as an effective constraint on prices to ensure affordability for households (including households with low incomes and vulnerable cohorts) and to minimise the burden on taxpayers.
Large for-profit providers of centre based day care have consistently had higher profit and operating margins than not-for-profits since 2018. The average profit margin for large centre based day care providers was about 9% for for-profit providers and about 6% for not-for- profit providers in 2022.
In conclusion, the ACCC sees substantial benefit in a detailed consideration of supply-side models, the role of market stewardship and direct price controls for child care services. There will be a final report from the ACCC soon.
It is now widely acknowledged that the pay of early childhood educators is too low. Comparisons of ECE hourly wages to those in other competing occupations show that educators are paid as if they had a high school education rather than a college certificate or diploma. We can see the effects of this in the extreme shortages of fully-qualified ECEs for existing and new child care facilities. In most Canadian provinces and territories, growth in spaces is held back as much by the lack of staff as it is by the lack of organizational and financial support for planned and funded expansion.
The big questions for governments are (1) how much will it cost to raise wages? (2) how should they do it? and (3) who will pay?
Up till now, it’s been hard to answer the “cost” question because we haven’t had good data on how many program staff work in licensed services and what their average wages are now.
I’ve spent a large amount of time pulling together and analyzing the best publicly available data on this, province by province (sorry, I haven’t done the Territories yet). The details of this (staff numbers and typical wages by qualification level for each province) will appear in another blog on this site once I have finished crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s (lots of numbers and boring reading for most people). But, using those numbers, I can now make estimates of how much raising ECE wages will cost. If you have better numbers, I’m happy for you to send them to me so I can make revisions.
The table below shows my estimates of how much it would cost to raise the wages of fully-qualified ECEs across the country by 25% from whatever their current level is. For the average ECE, that would mean a raise of $5 to $7 an hour from current levels. I’m not trying to say that’s enough, or that this is the right way to raise ECE wages. If I look at the data on wage comparisons to other occupations, it very likely isn’t enough. But, it may begin to move the needle on the supply of early childhood educators. It may encourage more new ECE graduates and existing ECEs to stay in the sector.
Have a look at the last column province by province. Each cell shows the overall cost of raising qualified ECE hourly wages by 25% compared to what they are now (including the effects of wage grids, wage grants and wage supplements).
This is simply a simulation to give us all an idea of how much it will cost to have a significant rise in ECE wages. It is not a carefully thought out design for wage increases. What is needed will vary from one province to another; some provinces have done a lot already, others have done little. In provinces with generally high wage levels for all types of workers, a 25% rise in ECE wages may not do very much. In provinces that have already done a lot to raise wage levels and establish wage grids, a 25% wage rise might be very significant.
To see all of the columns, view the table below in a new window
ESTIMATED STAFF NUMBERS (0-12), CURRENT WAGE BILL, AND COSTS OF WAGE INCREASES FOR FULLY-QUALIFIED ECEs
Province
Number fully-qualified incl directors/ supervisors
Number of less qualified
Total program staff
Total FTE program staff
Current annual wage bill ($ mil)
Cost of 25% increase for fully-qualified ($ mil)
BC
16,800
6,800
23,600
20,600
$1,005.4
+$208.0
AB
13,000
10,750
23,750
21,000
$965.8
+$155.9
SK
1,650
1,300
2,950
2,600
$90.7
+$15.5
MB
3,400
3,000
6,400
5,700
$215.3
+$34.9
ON
35,000
20,000
55,000
51,000
$2,183.0
+$391.7
QC (0-4)
29,000
10,300
39,300
35,000
$1,576.0
+$315.9
NB
2,700
2,000
4,700
4,300
$186.0
+$29.9
NS
2,600
800
3,400
3,200
$142.4
+$29.9
PE
700
400
1,100
950
$42.3
+$7.3
NL
825
400
1,225
1,100
$48.2
+$8.9
CANADA
105,675
55,750
161,425
145,450
$6,455.1
+$1,198.0
CA – QC
76,675
45,450
122,125
110,450
$4,879.5
+$882.1
To see all of the columns, view the table above in a new window
Fully-qualified refers to ECEs with a 1-year college ECE certificate or a 2-year college ECE diploma, or more.
These calculations are produced by Gordon Cleveland, based on the estimated wages and staff numbers in Estimates of Staff Numbers and Wages in ELCC Centres, by Province, August 16, 2023. Numbers for the Territories are not yet included.
It is assumed that wages would have to rise equally for ECEs caring for children 6-12 years of age. However, in Quebec where fully-qualified staff caring for children 5-12 years are employed by the school system, numbers refer only to staff caring for children 0-4.
These numbers do not include the extra cost of compulsory benefits like contributions to pay for EI and CPP/QPP and vacation pay. That would add another 15%-18%, perhaps. However, these estimates do include an allowance for supply staff.
There is no magic in this 25% wage rise simulation. But, now, with data on current numbers of staff and on current wage levels, we can do whatever simulations we think are appropriate and estimate the costs of taking action (and compare them to the costs of inaction). That, I think, is a big step forward.
With these simulations in hand, we can turn to the next two questions. Question #2 was how exactly we should raise wages. That debate is too big for this blogpost, but let me make some observations. I believe that the big staff supply problem is centred in the inadequate supply of fully-qualified early childhood educators, whether that is a one-year ECE college certificate or a two-year ECE college diploma. Recruiting untrained staff or recruiting staff that need to take only an orientation course or two is not where the problem lies. That means we need to concentrate our scarce funds on raising the wages of qualified educators.
And once we have decided to concentrate our wage-raising efforts on fully-qualified staff, we need to avoid the Ontario mistake. Ontario decided to raise wages by concentrating their efforts on low-paid educators. In 2022, they boosted all early childhood educators earning less than $18 an hour up to $18, but they did nothing for anyone else. In 2023 and beyond, they are raising the pay of other educators by $1 per hour each year, but only if the educators currently earn less than $25 an hour; $25 is the top wage for this program. This focus only on low-paid educators ensures that ECE will continue to be a low-paid profession; even $25 an hour will keep educators well below competing occupations.
And, the Ontario wage supplement design ensures that most of the wage assistance will go to centres that previously were underpaying their workers, disproportionately those in the for-profit sector. The Doug Ford government is developing a bit of a reputation for favouring for-profit friends, whether it be the Greenbelt or child care, but this kind of wage supplement design will not do a good job of retaining the best-qualified and most experienced staff and making ECE an attractive profession.
Finally, there is the question of who will pay. I would be overjoyed if the federal government decided to come up with a billion dollars of extra annual funding, but I don’t think that will happen very soon, and wage rises do need to happen very soon. Some provinces may be willing to up their spending to solve wage problems, and that is welcome. But the most obvious immediate place to get funding for educator wages is to change priorities for the expenditure of federal dollars under the Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreements. The very large majority of the federal funds under current Action Plans goes to lowering parent fees. Right now, many provinces are renegotiating Action Plans to cover the next three years. Why not allocate a larger portion of money in the next three years to cover wage increases for fully-qualified early childhood educators? And there should be provincial contributions to cover the wage increases for staff caring for 6-12 year-olds.
The numbers in the table above tell us about how much reallocation of dollars is needed in each province. Let’s get it done, or expansion will not happen and access to affordable child care will continue to be a dream for most families.
This is my submission to the Parliamentary Committee studying Bill C-35 in Canada.
I am an economist who specializes in the analysis of child care systems and in the design of child care policies and their effects. I have taught economics at the University of Toronto for 24 years. I have published numerous articles analyzing issues related to child care in academic and policy journals. I was the economist for the Special Parliamentary Committee on Child Care established by the Mulroney government in 1986-87. I was the main author of a major report on child care reform in Ontario for the Ministry of Education in 2018. I am currently a member of the National Advisory Council on Early Learning and Child Care but this brief reflects my own opinions, and not those of the Council.
I wish to address the issue of for-profit, not-for-profit and public child care services, a topic which has generated some controversy.
The Legislation Bill C-35 expresses a clear intent that expansion of early learning and child care services should be predominantly in not-for-profit and public auspices but also that all existing services of whatever auspice should be supported to provide affordable child care services.
Bill C-35 says that the aim of federal investments is to facilitate access to early learning and child care programs and services “in particular those that are provided by public and not for profit child care providers”. The legislation describes this as a “guiding principle” for federal investments in early learning and child care.
This is in accord with the principles articulated in the 2021 federal budget, which said that child care is essential social infrastructure, like the health and education systems. According to that document, the immediate priority is “building the right foundations for a community-based and truly Canada-wide system of child care. This includes working with provinces and territories to support primarily not-for-profit sector child care providers to grow quality spaces across the country while ensuring that families in all licensed spaces benefit from more affordable child care.” (p. 103). All of the thirteen agreements signed by provinces and territories indicate the consent of these jurisdictions to these purposes in the expenditure of federal money – about $30 billion over 5 years.
What is not-for-profit child care? Not-for-profit child care is defined by its essential purposes. Not-for-profit child care services are those services that spend revenues to enhance the well-being of families and children rather than to enrich the owners of the service. As the Canada-Wide child care agreements say they are “services to a community for a purpose other than generating a profit, including publicly-delivered child care operations. Providers/operations may generate a profit, but the surplus earnings, or other resources, are directed towards improving child care services (for example, improving family or child well-being or development) rather than distributed for the personal benefit of owners, members, investors or to enhance asset growth.”
Why does the federal government favour not-for-profit and public child care? The federal preference for not-for-profit child care derives directly from its desire to follow the example of Quebec in building a publicly-managed child care service for families. This fixed-fee child care system has been effective and popular in Quebec since the late 1990s. Following this model, by 2026, early learning and child care in Canada will be a publicly-managed service available for $10 a day to families.
Centres de la Petite Enfance (CPEs) are the not-for-profit child care centres that are at the heart of Quebec’s system. These services had a fixed fee, originally of $5 a day (now $8.85 per day). Child care services are funded according to the services they provide rather than being funded through money or vouchers given to parents. Because the majority of funds come from government, these services are financially accountable for how they spend public dollars, and must provide detailed annual reports. There is monitoring and assessment of quality. These fixed-fee services are incredibly popular with parents, in much the same way that kindergarten as a guaranteed affordable and accessible service is very popular with parents in the rest of Canada.
Unfortunately, the organizations that claim to represent for-profit operators have made clear their rejection of this approach to funding and managing Canada’s child care services. They are apparently unwilling to accept the fundamental elements that are necessary components of a $10 a day system: fixed-fees, direct operational funding of services, financial accountability for government funding of nearly 90% of their ongoing costs, government monitoring of service quality, public planning mechanisms to determine direct expansion of services to underserved communities, together with parental choice amongst a variety of different child care service options for their child (e.g., full-time, part-time, forest schools, evening and weekend services, special supports for children with disabilities, etc.)
What’s wrong with for-profit child care? In some other industries, the profit motive is a beautiful thing. Most of the goods and services we consume day-to-day are sold to us by private businesses, competing with each other to attract consumer dollars, each business striving to succeed in producing the most attractive and useful product at the best price. Some of these businesses may get out of hand with false advertising or delivery of shoddy goods, but government regulation may be able to control these negative behaviours and leave us with mostly positive results.
Competition is the force in markets that tends to make the self-interest of entrepreneurs broadly consistent with the public interest of consumers. In many markets, it is competition that keeps prices lower, encourages quality improvements and stimulates innovation. For a series of reasons, competition does not play this same role in child care markets – the fact that effective markets for any family are geographically very small, the importance of external benefits and the difficulties of accurately assessing quality. And so, typically, in the child care sector, for-profit providers have charged higher fees and provided lower quality services. In child care markets, self-interest is not curbed by competition; left unchecked, the desire to maximize profit can be directly opposed to the best interests of children and families.
Early learning and child care is a service where minor regulation of private profit-seeking businesses is not enough to deliver good results. Early learning and child care is a sector that has much in common with education. In general, education is much better when providers are public or not-for-profit. Primary and secondary education are delivered in public schools for free. Tertiary education is delivered by not-for-profit community colleges and universities for fees that are subsidized with public dollars.
As a society, we think that a primary and secondary education system that is delivered by public institutions (schools) behaves differently than it would if it were dominated by private profit-seeking businesses competing for the consumer dollar. We think that tertiary education delivered by profit-seeking businesses would be different and worse than when delivered by not-for-profit community colleges and universities. We think that kindergarten would be different and worse than when delivered by public institutions. There are issues of quality, there are issues of trust in the behaviour of the provider, there are issues of equity of delivery and guarantees of access. All of these make us prefer not-for-profit and public delivery of educational services and not-for-profit and public delivery of early learning and child care.
As Margaret Norrie McCain and Roy Romanow wrote back in 2005: : We have nothing against profit making except when it comes to profiting off publicly subsidized children’s services. Child care like schools, libraries or hospitals is a community-based service, not a commodity. Whether a centre opens or closes, where it its located or who it serves are not merely business decisions. They require democratic input. While child care centres should be business-like in their efficiencies; it must be recognized that the business of these organizations should be total fixation on the well-being of children…. The ministers should grandfather those now operating, but restrict expansion dollars to public and non-profit child care providers. (“Stand on guard for child care”, Globe & Mail, 4 Feb 2005).
Is this position just ideological? The position is not ideological; it is practical. Not-for-profit and public child care services have a better track record in providing the levels of quality that will best support children’s development. The consensus on this is sufficient that the Globe and Mail editorial board recently wrote that “Research here and in other countries has consistently shown that, on average, non-profit child-care centres deliver better care than for-profit ones.” (Feb 13, 2023).
Child care systems dominated by not-for-profit and public providers operate differently than those dominated by commercial providers. Just compare co-ordinated child care systems in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark to wild-west markets for child care in England, Australia and the United States. In child care systems dominated by not-for-profit and public provision, low-income families are better served, the quality of services is higher and more reliable and the costs are lower.
When parent fees drop to an average of $10 a day by 2025-26, the effective role of competition will be even weaker than it is now. Over 80% of the funds for children 0-5 years will come from government. Parents will be paying less than 10-15% of the full costs of providing care. No matter how you deliver the government assistance, that means that the parent is no longer the main consumer who controls child care providers by voting with their dollars for better quality, more services or lower fees. The main consumer, the main driver of what happens in the child care “market” will be the government, as it is in all levels of education. So, it is, more or less, a purely ideological statement to say that competitive child care markets will make for-profit providers be more efficient, that they will serve parent needs better, that they will provide better quality care, that they will be more responsive to what parents and children need and want.
Notice that the federal legislation and provincial/territorial agreements do not seek to abolish or eliminate for-profit child care. The intention is only to have limitations on the amount of its growth and to regulate its quality and accountability for funds received. Under this legislation, growth will be predominantly in not-for-profit and public services including home child care. Many families now have their children in for-profit services that will continue to get federal government funding and will thrive. So far as I know, there is not a single for-profit service that existed before the rollout of the $10 a day program that has been refused entry to the program and the funding that goes with it.
What we need are producers of child care whose primary objective is the provision of quality experiences for children, producers who are willing to make constant quality improvement their watchword. These producers need to be financially transparent and open (because government will need to monitor costs and account for expenditures). These producers need to pay staff well according to established salary grids to ensure stability and quality of services. These producers need to have as a key objective making early learning and child care into a public service at good quality and affordable for all.
If existing for-profit providers are willing to accept these types of conditions on their operation, they are welcomed to continue operation in the $10 a day system, with operational funding.
We should be aware that there will be substantial downward pressures on quality as the child care sector expands rapidly, even if it is dominated by not-for-profit and public providers. There will be many new staff with little experience, there will be shortages of trained staff, and there will be inadequate numbers of experienced educators to properly mentor new staff. In this circumstance, to rely on providers whose fundamental objectives do not align well with the promotion of quality would be a serious mistake.
Doesn’t for-profit child care provide more “choice” for parents? Not really. The “choice” that parents want and need is choice of services that are more convenient for parents in terms of location and hours and better for children in terms of availability of special needs programming, variety in programming (such as outdoor-oriented programs), support for particular cultural and language learning etc. Most of these programs are more expensive to offer than standard child care. For-profit operators, seeking to maximize profit, are less likely to offer them when fees are controlled. For-profit operators will only provide more “choice” in offering ancillary services for which they may be able to charge extra fees.
Is there any evidence that the quality of for-profit child care is worse than not-for-profit child care? There is good academic evidence that for-profit provision tends to be of lower quality. And noted Canadian economist Professor Pierre Fortin has summarized the quality results from two Quebec studies very nicely in this chart.
This evidence is based on lengthy and detailed on-site quality evaluations using accepted scales for the measurement of the factors important to children’s development. As the chart shows us, children in not-for-profit CPEs in Quebec have been receiving good or excellent quality child care. Many children in for-profit full-fee child care centres have been receiving child care of inadequate quality.
An important part of the reason is that for-profit child care has historically paid much lower wages to staff than has the not-for-profit sector.
But isn’t it true that public and not-for-profit enterprises are inefficient and for-profit providers can produce services at lower costs? There is little evidence of this. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives recently made over 9,000 phone calls to child care facilities across Canada, inquiring about the fees they charge to parents (Macdonald and Friendly, In Progress: Child Care Fees in Canada 2019, 2020). Their conclusion: “We found that for-profit centres generally charge more for preschool spaces than not-for-profit centres do. In 19 of the 25 cities for which we had data (76%) for-profit centres charged at least 10% more than not-for-profit centres. In the more extreme cases (Calgary, Richmond, Richmond Hill and Edmonton), for-profit centres’ preschool-age fees were 50% to 60% higher than their not-for-profit counterparts.” (pp. 20-21). The chart below from that publication shows that, in 15 of the 25 cities, for-profits charge on average over 20% higher parent fees.
It is worth noting that in Australia, with child care provision dominated by for-profit operators, the average cost of full-time care is over $27,000 a year for all ages of children and has risen by 41% over the last eight years, much more than inflation (Australian Government Productivity Commission Report on Government Services 2021).
But isn’t it true that for-profits can build spaces faster? When it comes to growth, for-profit child care providers have structural advantages over not-for-profits. Community-based not-for-profit child care centres have typically been unwilling to go into debt, so unless there is a program of capital grants, loan guarantees or social investment to pay for the costs of building new facilities or repurposing existing buildings, it will be hard for not-for-profits to expand.
The mission of for-profit businesses is to make a profit, so expansion is a natural fit, particularly when the government is paying over 80% of the operating costs and therefore guaranteeing a continuing demand for services. Shareholders or banks are always willing to ante up when the government is willing to provide guaranteed funding for profit-making businesses.
But there are ways around these structural barriers faced by not-for-profits. Not-for-profits need two main things if they are to build new capacity quickly. First, is access to capital. Some of this should come in the form of capital grants to not-for-profits or municipalities or school boards who are willing to move quickly. Some of this can be in the form of low-interest loans. Not-for-profits are allowed to borrow money, but most banks and other sources of funds are unwilling to lend because of perceived high risk of defaultrtt. But governments can and should guarantee the loans, because, after all, there will be ample federally-provided operating funding for child care centres to pay back the loans over time.
The second thing that not-for-profits need is a development champion – a development agency that specializes in handling all the details involved in building new capacity or renovating existing capacity. This is familiar territory for co-operative housing or not-for-profit housing developments. There are specialized agencies that handle the housing development and then turn the housing over to co-ops or not-for-profit housing agencies to manage and operate.
Neither of these barriers is particularly insurmountable, but they do require governments to facilitate surmounting them. In many cases, public agencies such as municipalities, school boards, and community colleges can help a great deal in supporting not-for-profit and public developments. And the federal government should be open to expansions of kindergarten integrated with before-and-after school care. This is particularly true in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta that currently have only half-day kindergarten for 5-year-olds.
Ontario shows that rapid expansion of not-for-profit child care services is very possible. The information is available in the annual Ontario statistical report on early learning and child care (Ontario Early Years and Child Care Annual Report – various years). Over the last 10 years to 2019-20, centre spaces increased in Ontario by 198,600. Fully 85% of the increase (168,900 spaces) was in not-for-profit child care. As of 2020, there were 462,800 centre spaces in Ontario. Can not-for-profits expand rapidly? Given the right supports, yes they can and they have.
What about the growth of big-box corporate for-profit child care? Some for-profit child care providers are good, some are bad. This is not really a discussion about individual operators. Particularly when small for-profit operations are run by persons knowledgeable about early childhood education, they can sometimes do quite a good job providing child care services. The legislation in front of the Standing Committee does not and most of the provincial/territorial agreements do not exclude some expansion of for-profit care.
The real issue is “Should the early learning and child care systems that we are building in Canada be dominated by for-profit corporate child care operators?” We know that if government policy is agnostic between for-profit and not-for-profit, and generous operating funding for over 80% of costs is made available to both, we will quickly have for-profits dominate new provision of services.
We can look to Australia for evidence. In 2000, the Australian government introduced its Child Care Benefit, providing substantial child care funding for the first time. In 2001, ABC Learning began its corporate life with 43 child care centres. It quickly expanded, gobbling up existing centres and creating its own. By the time it collapsed in financial scandal in 2007, it had grown to over 1,000 centres – 25% of the entire child care market.
Now that there are billions of federal dollars on the table, corporations who never had any interest in children’s or families’ welfare are, all of a sudden, very anxious to be able to enter this market and profit from the financial bonanza. Now is the time to decide whether Canadian child care will be corporate or community-based. This legislation declares the intent of the federal government that federal funds should be used to create a community-based early learning and child care system.
Are for-profit operators being excluded from the new Canada-Wide child care system? That, of course, depends on the details of the agreements signed in each province and territory. However, in Alberta and Ontario where there has been the greatest clamour from the for-profit operators, it is clear that for-profit operators are not excluded. In fact, in both provinces, all existing for-profit operators have been invited to join and benefit from the funding guarantees provided by federal dollars.
In Ontario, the provincial government agreed that there could be growth in the number of for-profit spaces, but that the proportion of for-profits could not be greater than they were when the agreement was signed. Discrimination? Hardly. Instead, this is a policy preference of maintaining the existing predominantly not-for-profit and public balance of provision.
In Alberta, more than 60% of child care has been provided by for-profit operators. Most of the growth since the Canada-Wide child care agreement was signed has been in the for-profit sector. An opening for an additional 22,500 for-profit spaces has been recently announced. Does this sound like an ideologically-biased extermination of the for-profit sector? Hardly. If anything, the stick is bent too far in favour of for-profit provision. The federal legislation is a useful reminder that the intent is, over time, to create a child care system that provides a public service in which not-for-profit, public and home child care providers are the dominant group of providers dedicated to the public interest in child care.
Do for-profit child care operators in Canada support the $10 a day system? For-profit child care operators and their lobbyists want full access to federal dollars, but they don’t agree with direct funding of child care services to provide $10 a day care. They disagree with the fundamental design elements for the program that are laid out in the thirteen provincial and territorial agreements. Instead of accepting direct funding of services, the newly-formed National Advisory Council on Private Child Care says “The Council will advocate for a new approach to childcare that provides funding directly to families.”
That kind of tax-credit or voucher-type funding mechanism has been tried in Quebec and has been a failure. As a result of these failures, the current Quebec government has decided to convert up to 50,000 of the tax-credit-funded spaces (i.e., most of them) to fixed-fee spaces over the next five years.
The voucher-type funding model is similar to the one currently used in Australia where fee rises have been much higher than inflation and where there are few measures of financial accountability of operators for the ways they use over $10 billion of government money. Rising fees and few measures of financial accountability are very attractive to for-profit operators. But they are not good for parents, children or governments.
There’s a new Canada-wide organization of for-profit child care operators that has just been formed in Calgary. Appropriately enough, they were brought together by CIPR Communications, a PR and marketing company they have hired to state their case. They don’t like the new Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care system that the federal government and all provincial and territorial governments have agreed to create (to complement Quebec’s system). They don’t want you and other families to have $10 a day child care.
Instead, their new policy idea is the same as the much-tested and discredited old policy idea – fund the parents to buy child care at ever rising fees (if they can find it) instead of funding services to ensure that they are affordable and available for families. See discussion of these ideas here, here and here.
They are aggrieved that federal, provincial and territorial governments across the country have agreed that the preference should be for the expansion of not-for-profit and public child care services. These for-profit operators believe the preference for not-for-profit child care is ideologically driven. However, the Globe and Mail editorial this week told us why not-for-profits are preferred: “Research here and in other countries has consistently shown that, on average, non-profit child-care centres deliver better care than for-profit ones.” An important part of the reason is that for-profit child care has historically paid much lower wages to staff than has the not-for-profit sector.
And the private operators don’t like financial accountability. They are happy for the federal government to spend $10 billion a year on child care and for provinces and territories to pay a similar amount. But they don’t want the financial accountability that goes along with the new child care agreements. That’s why they prefer funding to go to parents – no need to report on or account for the 90% of your revenues that come from government. No limitations on profit earned. No limits on excessive spending. No need to account for the government money that buys you assets that you can then sell to others. Talk about pigs at the trough.
I recently gave a webinar presentation on behalf of Building Blocks for Child Care. Its focus was on expansion issues, but I talked quite a bit about the appropriate role of for-profit operators in building the new early learning and child care system. Let me quote at length from that presentation:
“There can be a role for for-profit operators in a universal system. Having a certain percentage of for-profits is not NECESSARILY a deal-breaker. … the key is that for-profits in our universal child care system must accept the rules of the game. What do I mean by rules of the game? Early learning and child care is becoming a public service somewhat like health and education. Child care will be largely publicly funded and must be accountable for the ways it spends public funds. Value for money received. Early learning and child care will be affordable to parents, will be of high quality, will be universally available in a wide range of forms suited to children’s and parents’ needs and will be delivered mainly by not-for-profit and public licensees, with some delivery of services by private for-profit operators.
“Something like 80%-90% of an operator’s revenues will come from government. Operators will have to be financially accountable for these funds and transparent about how they spend them. Some expenditures will not be legitimate and many will. There will be monitoring, quality evaluation, and extensive reporting requirements. That’s the way that a universal fixed-fee system has to work, but most for-profit operators seem not to accept these rules of the game.
“For-profit operators want very few controls on their spending and the costs that they can claim. They lobbied the Ministry [i.e., the Ontario Ministry of Education] successfully to get rid of most measures of financial accountability for the 2022 and 2023 funding guidelines. Yet, without financial accountability, they expect governments to compensate them for all of their costs above $10 a day. How can that work? It doesn’t. In fact, if you talk to for-profit operators for a little while, you find out that they don’t like a fixed-fee system at all. They want a tax credit scheme [i.e., funding provided to parents], in which for-profit operators charge whatever the market will bear, and governments give increasing amounts of money to parents to chase after the rising fees and try to make child care affordable. They don’t accept the rules of the game. And as long as they don’t accept the rules of the game, for-profit operators play a decisively negative role in our attempts to build a universal system of good quality child care services. “
These for-profit operators meeting in Calgary have just made clear what many of us already knew – many for-profit operators are unwilling to be participants in building an accountable, affordable, accessible, high quality system of child care as a public service for Canada’s families. They would prefer a child care funding system that enriches them without controls or accountability. Let’s ignore them and their PR company, but be willing to work with those for-profit operators that ARE willing to be part of building early learning and child care as a public service.
On average, not-for-profit child care centres reliably deliver better care than for-profit ones.
In Canada, we need expansion of spaces as a high priority.
This expansion must be accompanied by financial accountability for public money, caps on fees, higher wages, and better quality for children.
Around the world, we have prominent experiences where for-profit child care corporations feast on public money without accountability, drive up fees much faster than inflation, and slash wages to enhance profit.
Therefore, in Canada, we must resist limitations on the growth of for-profit child care and allow more entrepreneurs to enter the market.
It’s nice when opinion columns are logical; many people think it’s a requirement of the genre. But not so for the Globe and Mail. Their most recent editorial about not-for-profit and for-profit child care is insightful, but completely illogical.
Not-for-profit and public services are at the heart of Ontario child care. Overall, they care for more than three-quarters of our children in licensed child care. For children 0-5 years of age, that number has been 70% of children compared to 30% in commercial child care arrangements.
I guess that’s why Ontario didn’t fuss too much about agreeing with the federal government that this percentage – at least 70% not-for-profit and public – would stay the same when licensed child care moves to $10 a day by 2026. In March 2022, Ontario signed an agreement with the federal government to get about $10 billion over 4 years in order to transform Ontario’s child care into an affordable, increasingly accessible service provided predominantly by not-for-profit and public providers.
That Agreement is admirably clear on the limits to for-profit expansion. In Section 2.1.1, Ontario commits that “at the end of this Agreement, the proportion of not-for-profit licensed child care spaces for children age 0 to 5 compared to the total number of licensed child care spaces for children age 0 to 5 will be 70% or higher.” (emphasis added)
This commitment is repeated in Ontario’s Action Plan in Section 4.4.
However, there is increasing evidence that Ontario regrets the terms they agreed to in March of 2022. I have now heard from the Ministry of Education that Ontario no longer plans to respect this part of the Agreement.
Of course, the Canada-Ontario Agreement is a contract and payment of federal money depends on following its terms. So, the Ministry of Education is twisting itself into a pretzel trying to justify its new intentions. The Ministry of Education has now decided that the insistence upon a minimum of 70% not-for-profit services, despite the clear wording above, refers only to services that are in receipt of federally-provided operating funding and does not apply to all licensed child care. But – read the underlined section again – they are obviously wrong.
Why is this happening now? For-profit expansion was front-end-loaded by the current government. Many for-profit operators applied for licences over the months that Ontario was dithering about whether to sign an agreement to take billions of dollars of federal child care money. As a result in order to stick to the original 70% rule, the province could only license about 2,300 more spaces between now and 2026, according to my calculations. All the rest of the expansion, tens of thousands of spaces, would have to come from either not-for-profit or public operators.
Apparently, the government of Ontario, and the for-profit lobbyists that appear to dictate its recent policy changes, did not like this logic. Ontario now wants to be allowed to license dozens or hundreds more of these for-profit operators whose fees will not be controlled.
The Ministry of Education’s reinterpretation of the Agreement would mean more for-profit expansion than the current limit of 2,300 within federally-funded services. Plus, it would allow for an infinite amount of for-profit expansion outside of the funding agreement. Presumably, once this agreement ends in 2026, all these new for-profits outside the agreement could be welcomed by Ontario into a new five-year funding arrangement with the federal government.
For-profit expansion outside of the funding agreement will not be planned or controlled in any way. It will, no doubt, happen in the big population centres where most services are already located, not in priority underserved neighbourhoods.
This latest travesty comes on top of other instances of Ministry of Education fealty to Ontario’s for-profit operators. We need to make it clear that this is unacceptable. Parents want and need good quality, affordable child care. They will get that in a system dominated by not-for-profit logic. But they will not get good quality affordable child care if commercial interests are allowed to take complete control of Ontario’s child care policies.
This table below supports the chart in my presentation to the recent (Jan 5, 2023) Building Blocks for Child Care webinar on child care expansion in Ontario. It is posted nearby on this website. The table and chart show the essential problem behind recruitment and retention problems of early childhood educators. Their wages are too low to attract many more educators. In essence, the average wage paid to early childhood educators is much lower than the hourly wages paid to workers in other occupations requiring a college education. Early childhood educators are paid as if they had only a high school education, so there is very little incentive to enter the profession. The data is from Statistics Canada, most of it from the Labour Force Survey across 2020 and 2021.
You can also compare this to data we have on Registered Early Childhood Educators in Ontario from 2019. Have a look at Figure 11 and the table below it from Ontario’s 2020 Annual Report. It shows that the median wage of RECEs in Ontario in 2019 was just a hair above $20 an hour. By the way, Ontario hasn’t yet published its 2021 Annual Report on how child care is doing in Ontario, even though they collected that data on March 31st, 2021. I wonder why.
Young women and men make career decisions early in life based upon their capabilities, their interests and the amount of money they might expect to earn. If there are shortages of early childhood educators, wage levels need to be increased to recruit more educators and retain the ones you have.
Why do we have a huge problem recruiting and retaining staff in licensed child care across Canada? Fundamentally, it is because the wages of early childhood educators and assistants are not competitive with other occupations that require a college education. Simple as that, really.
This first table shows the latest data from Job Bank about the hourly wage levels in a range of occupations that require a college education, specialized training or apprenticeship training. Early childhood educators and assistants appears at the top. Then, health occupations requiring a college education are grouped together, followed by occupations in education and law and in social, community and government services. The final group of occupations are in business, finance and administration. Early childhood educators and assistants across Canada earn an average wage of $20.88 an hour, which is lower than all the others. Read and weep.
NOC Code
Occupation Title
Average Hourly Wage
4214
Early Childhood Educators and Assistants
$20.88
3222
Dental Hygienist and Dental Therapists
$39.45
3223
Dental Technicians and Lab Assistants
$25.09
3232
Practitioners of Natural Healing
$34.41
3233
Licensed Practical Nurses
$28.28
3234
Paramedical Occupations
$34.68
3236
Massage Therapists
$34.36
4211
Paralegal and Related Occupations
$31.31
4212
Social and Community Service Workers
$25.18
4214
Early Childhood Educators and Assistants
$20.88
4215
Instructors of Persons with Disabilities
$28.51
4216
Other Instructors
$23.09
1221
Administrative Officers
$29.00
1222
Executive Assistants
$31.38
1241
Administrative Assistants
$24.87
1242
Legal Administrative Assistants
$26.22
1243
Medical Administrative Assistants
$22.78
1253
Records Management Technicians
$29.21
Where does the average wage of early childhood educators and assistants apparently fit on the ladder of occupations? It is similar to the wages paid for occupations requiring only a high school education or on-the-job training. Even here, many of the other occupations are paid better than child care.
See the table below that lists occupations requiring only a high-school education, except for the first occupation in which early childhood educators require a college education.
NOC Code
Occupation Title
Average Hourly Wage
4214
Early Childhood Educators and Assistants
$20.88
3411
Dental Assistants
$25.37
3413
Nurses’ Aides, Orderlies and Service Associates
$21.54
3414
Other Assisting Occupations in Health Services
$21.83
4411
Home Child Care Providers
$18.03
4412
Home Support Workers, Housekeepers and Related
$19.02
4413
Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants
$23.51
1411
General Office Support Workers
$23.30
1414
Receptionists
$19.79
1415
Personnel Clerks
$25.79
1422
Data Entry Clerks
$22.54
1511
Mail, Postal and Related Workers
$22.49
1513
Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors
The message is clear. If we want to expand early childhood education as a profession and have enough educators to offer good quality care at $10 a day, there is no real alternative to raising the wages. Simple as that.
How much do Early Childhood Educators earn? Everyone knows that their wages are low – too low – but it’s hard to find a reliable source of data to make wage comparisons.
One very interesting data source is a Government of Canada web site called Job Bank (www.jobbank.gc.ca). It’s a web site designed to help people find jobs and plan their careers by providing information. And it has a lot of data on many different occupations in many different geographic locations in Canada.
The data on Early Childhood Educators comes from the Labour Force Survey, a monthly survey conducted by Statistics Canada that produces well-known updates of unemployment rates in Canada, but also collects detailed information about wages and occupations. Each month there are about 54,000 households that respond to the survey about members of their household.
Early Childhood Educators are part of an occupation called Early Childhood Educators and Assistants. You might know it as occupation 4214 in the National Occupational Code. However, there is a new revision of this coding system and in future Early Childhood Educators and Assistants will be known as NOC 42202.
The chart below shows the latest data available for the wages of Early Childhood Educators and Assistants from the Job Bank web site. We get information on the average hourly wage rate (grey line), the “low wage” level (blue line; this is the 10th percentile of the wage distribution), and the “high wage” (orange line; this is the 90th percentile of the wage distribution). The exact number for the average wage is shown as a set of data labels on the chart.
The data seems very precise and useful. It tells us that the average wage across Canada is $20.88 per hour. However, hourly wages range from about $15 an hour to about $26.50 per hour when we look at the range from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile. We can also see that some jurisdictions have lower wages (the Atlantic Provinces, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta) compared to other jurisdictions. We could download similar data from other years and see how wages have changed over time.
However, the precision of this data is somewhat illusory. We are, perhaps, interested in finding out the hourly wages of program staff with certificate, diploma or university qualifications (early childhood educators) separately from the hourly wages of early childhood educator assistants who don’t have this level of qualifications. This data source does not allow us to do this; both educators and educator assistants are grouped together in the same occupation. Similarly, we can’t get data separately on supervisors and directors as opposed to ECEs that are exclusively employed in direct contact with children.
There’s another problem as well. We might well be interested only in program staff working in licensed child care centres. However, this occupation (NOC 42202) includes early childhood educators that work in kindergartens and other early childhood services as well as those in licensed centres.[1] Elementary School Teachers’ Aides are in a different occupation, as are family home care providers, but still NOC 42202 does not give us a wage for licensed child care centre employees only.
A major alternative source of data is available for Ontario. This comes from a census survey of all licensed child care providers in the province that is conducted annually by the Ministry of Education. The last data that has been released on wages is from 2019 (!) https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-early-years-and-child-care-annual-report-2020.
It is likely that the Ministry of Education has data from 2022, but this has not yet been published. Here is the data from the 2019 Ontario survey.
This Ontario wage data is collected from centres, so reflects only the wages that are paid to staff in licensed child care centres. Centre directors are asked to report how many staff with different qualification levels have hourly wages in a number of different ranges. Wages for early childhood educators with an RECE are reported separately from wages for staff in an RECE position but who needed a director’s approval because of lack of full qualification. Wages for other program staff (without formal qualifications) are also reported. Because the data is collected in ranges, it is not possible to calculate either the average wage or the median wage for RECEs and other program staff.
The median wage is, however, the wage of the staff member in the 50th percentile position. With 47% of RECEs having hourly wages of $20 or less and 53% of RECEs having hourly wages of over $20, it would appear that the median wage of RECEs in child care centres in Ontario in 2019 was very close to $20. By the same logic, we can say that the median wage for staff with a director’s approval and for other program staff was between $15.01 and $20.
If I use the Job Bank web site to get data on Early Childhood Educators and Assistants for Ontario in 2019, I find that the median wage in 2018-2019[2] was $19.75 and for 2019-2020 was $20. Interestingly, this median is very close to the estimate for RECEs in Ontario that comes from the Ontario annual census survey.
In my next blog post, I will look at wage comparisons based on the Job Bank data.
[1] For example, the Annual Report of Ontario’s College of Early Childhood Educators for 2020-21 tells us that only 56% of Registered Early Childhood Educators (RECEs) in the province are actually employed in licensed child care. Another 32% are employed in the education sector and 12% elsewhere.
[2] Job Bank uses two years of Labour Force Survey data to get its wage estimates for NOC 42202, averaging the wage reports over the surveys from that two-year period.